For: Distributor and dealer sales managers, and manufacturer account teams, forecasting club equipment orders.
The decision: Whether strong published operator results justify raising an account’s forecast or call priority.
60-second answer: Not by themselves. HFA’s release for its 2026 Global Report says operators responding to its survey posted median revenue growth of 10.7%, median net membership growth of 6.1% and a median EBITDA margin of 22.1% in 2025, and most expect more growth in 2026. Those are medians from 244 respondents worldwide, and the release does not report equipment or capital budgets. Raise an account only when its own records show a dated trigger with a named decision-maker: a lease event, a replacement plan with an approver, repeat service calls on the same stations, or an ownership change that resets the capital plan.
What HFA reported, and for whom
The Health & Fitness Association (HFA) released the 2026 HFA Global Report on September 14, 2026. The release reports results for operators responding to HFA’s Global Survey, which included 244 operators representing nearly 27,000 facilities worldwide. For 2025, those respondents posted:
- median revenue growth of 10.7%
- median net membership growth of 6.1%
- a median EBITDA margin of 22.1%
For 2026, 92.3% of respondents expect revenue to increase, including 70.9% who anticipate growth above 5%. More than 85% expect membership to rise, 83.4% expect EBITDA to increase and 57.7% anticipate EBITDA growth above 5%. About two-thirds expect technology spending to rise, 60.7% expect higher marketing spending and 45.8% expect staffing to increase.
Those figures describe survey respondents, worldwide, at the median. The release does not break them out by country, segment or operator size, and it does not mention equipment budgets or capital expenditure. The full report may carry more detail; this guide relies only on the public release.
What each figure can and cannot tell a seller
Revenue growth shows capacity, not intent. A club can grow revenue through dues increases, new members or secondary spending, and only more members or more visits add use to the floor. Ask the account which route its growth took.
Membership growth is the closest the release comes to a usage signal, but a median across 244 operators says nothing about a particular site or station. Confirm with the account’s service history and any console or check-in data it will share.
EBITDA margin is measured before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization. A business can report a healthy margin and still have little free cash once debt service and existing capital commitments are paid. The margin shows operating profitability; it does not show money set aside for equipment.
Expectations describe planning posture and carry no timing. The spending expectations in the release concern technology, marketing and staffing, which may compete with equipment for the same capital.
Supply-side context. SFIA’s March 31, 2026 release on its Manufacturers’ Sales by Category Report put 2025 US wholesale sales of sporting goods at about $130 billion, up 3.7%, and said institutional fitness equipment saw broad-based growth while portions of the consumer/home equipment segment declined. It gives no fitness-equipment figure, and wholesale value moves with price as well as units; see turning market reports into a dealer demand test.
Operator results signal check
Each row pairs a published figure with the account record that confirms or contradicts it. The “suggests” and “cannot show” columns are FEX analysis.
| Signal | What it suggests | What it cannot show | Record to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median revenue growth of 10.7% (2025, survey respondents) | Respondents had capacity to fund spending | An approved budget; whether growth came from price or members | The account’s explanation of its growth; its capital plan |
| Median net membership growth of 6.1% | More use on some floors | Which sites or stations | Service calls and repeat failures by asset |
| Median EBITDA margin of 22.1% | Operating profitability | Cash after debt service and existing commitments | Payment history, credit limit use and deposit behavior |
| 92.3% expect revenue to rise; 70.9% above 5% | Confidence for 2026 | Timing or size of any order | A dated capital plan with a named approver |
| About two-thirds expect higher technology spending | Technology is a 2026 priority | Whether equipment budgets rise or fall | What else is in this year’s capital plan |
| Institutional fitness equipment growth (SFIA, 2025 US wholesale) | The commercial channel was active | Units, fitness-only value or your territory | Your quotes and orders by category and account |
Account-level triggers and the records behind them
An order date is an account-level fact. The triggers below are FEX analysis; set any thresholds from your own history, not from an industry figure.
Lease events. A renewal, relocation or expansion creates a dated decision and often a defined scope. Record lease dates in the CRM when accounts share them.
Installed-base age. Pull install dates from your own past orders and compare them with the account’s replacement plan, the manufacturer’s parts-support commitments and the repair history. Equipment installed together may come up for review together; check the repair log before assuming it. The evidence for that decision is covered in comparing future repair cost, parts support and downtime.
Service clusters. Repeat calls on the same stations, rising parts spend or downtime the operator raises are site-level usage evidence. Decide how many repeat calls on one station prompt a replacement conversation.
Ownership or financing changes. A sale, refinancing or new investor can pause or reset a capital plan. Ask who approves spending now and when the plan will be set.
Competitive openings. A new competitor nearby can prompt a refresh discussion. It is a reason to call, not an order.
Records to pull: install dates by account; service tickets and parts orders by asset over a period you define; open quotes with decision dates and approvers; lease and ownership notes; payment history; each account’s capital-plan calendar. Before quoting a funded scope, settle payment terms using dealer credit terms and exposure limits.
Red flags
- A forecast raised because an industry median improved.
- “Budget approved” with no approver, amount or date.
- Stock ordered on the strength of survey optimism.
- A margin figure treated as cash available for equipment.
- One account’s strong year assumed for every account in its segment.
What to do this week
- Sort active accounts by their next dated event: lease, plan approval or ownership change.
- Pull install dates from your order history and flag accounts where much of the floor was installed at once.
- List stations with repeat service calls over the period you track.
- Ask your largest accounts whether their 2025 growth came from price, members or other revenue.
- Take out of the forecast any order without an approver and a date.
Continue with FEX
- Funded replacement reserves from asset-level evidence
- Five evidence checks before an equipment upgrade
- Asset registers for service, transfers and recalls
FEX editorial guidance: the signal table, triggers and red flags are FEX analysis based on the public HFA and SFIA releases. They are not HFA or SFIA findings, financial advice or a forecast for any account.
Source notes
- Health & Fitness Association: The 2026 HFA Global Report Shows the Fitness Industry Delivered a Landmark 2025 (September 14, 2026) — Survey base, 2025 operator medians and 2026 expectations.
- SFIA: New SFIA Report: Sporting Goods Industry Reaches Nearly $130B Amid Trade and Tariff Pressures (March 31, 2026) — 2025 US wholesale total and growth, and the qualitative institutional and consumer/home equipment findings.
Editorial update, October 8, 2026: Rechecked all operator figures against HFA’s September 14, 2026 release and corrected “85 percent” to “more than 85%”. Removed invented lead times to an order, unsupported claims about refinancing freezes, survey optimism and which operators order first, and a fixed six-year replacement prompt; corrected the SFIA home-equipment wording to “portions of” that segment.
